By Negus Kebede
April 06, 2020
Reversal of Multilateralism?
It is plain as the noses on our faces that the viral influence of the COVID-19 pandemic is evolving to be a colossal stress test for multilateralism, and engaging a reverse gear of multilateralism by some governments posing a jeopardy to pandemic response capacities of individual countries. The unfolding manifestations are global supply chain breakdowns with most nations hoarding medical supplies and implementing travel bans and airport border closures, prompting some to say globalization seems to be in a sorry state.
At this point, it might look rather insensitive to gauge the severity of the repercussion of a shockwave with a multilateral barometer while individual countries are mercilessly pounded by the pandemic. This is simply because the modern world is profoundly interconnected; and without solidarity and cooperation at this time of adversity, the vulnerabilities of nations are very deep. It is also a reminiscent of popular notion, “the butterfly effect”, which literally means, “in complex dynamical systems of the interconnected world, even minute variances in the initial conditions could have profound and widely divergent effects on the system’s outcomes.”
A trending backlash against multilateralism may leave upholders and spectators of integrations distinctly uneasy. A towering figure and an epitomizing model in fostering a progressive regional integration, the European Union, now seems to be confronted with and tested by the exigencies of the pandemic. If it is not dealt with caution, any regional bloc may not be immune either to such blows on cohesions and coordinated approaches to contain the spread of the virus. This may add an ominous element to the cocktail of fear and distrust that faults with the much-needed solidarity may lead to rupture within the global supply chains for urgent medical supplies.
The Economist had an article out on March 17, 2020, lamenting the hollowness of the boasts of international solidarity and a shared approach. It said that “countries are still pursuing divergent strategies, and in some cases banning exports of medical supplies.” It also described the race as the countries seem to be “competing to show that their method stands the best chance of success.” Apart from the economic reverberations of the pandemic, some also argue that omnipresence of such mass-scale threats, the uncertainty, the fear, the mysticism, the irrationalism, and the xenophobia that accompany them may eventually bring an end to a universalist culture, and say that COVID-19 will precipitate the “waning of globalization.”
A plethora of geopolitical analysts are also saying that unpredictable behaviors exhibited by some countries may be partly driven by myopic geopolitical and geo-economic calculations, which may encompass some dogmatic security components. But one can be sure that this tendency of rising geopolitical rivalry will only stoke up tensions across countries and regions, and will not help any country contain the spread. And, trading of accusations and counter-accusations does not help, other than being used and abused to fan flames of hostilities and confrontations. In a stark contrast, some countries are commendably demonstrating their readiness to export medical supplies and send medical cohorts to other countries that are succumbing to the disease.
Any tendency of reversing the multilateral system should not be allowed to fester global predicaments. Quite evidently, the burden for tackling the current global predicament cannot be laid solely at the feet of one country or one organization. In an apparent analysis of the scale of the pandemic, which is also testing the World Health Organization’s (WHO) ability to deliver as one, the United Nations is mobilizing its global workforce under its other entities to “help affected Governments to contain or slow the onslaught of this deadly disease.” The operational arms of the multilateral system have continued to function even though facing intense levels of strain and a new matrix of challenges in pandemic crises. Initially, rich countries have not done much to provide funding for WHO to deliver on its mandate, and it has stirred up much worries in the organization. But what is most needed and to be submitted at this time is enhanced cooperation, collaboration and joining up to tackle global challenges, such as pandemics, which threaten to reverse the positive aspects of the interconnectedness of nations, not perilous tendencies that run counter to multilateralism.
Getting Multilateral Efforts Right in Africa
There is no doubt that the comparative competences in the health systems and the fiscal machinery, as well as, real resources space between advanced economies and least developed ones are hardly symmetrical. If COVID-19’s axes fallen on countries with rock-solid health systems have put them on the verge of paralysis, one can imagine how the pandemic could exert its tight rein and impact on Africa’s fragile health system. But luckily enough, the continent has not largely been daunted by the brunt of the little-understood pandemic so far, which only signals the world to act quickly before it goes out of hand. While the wake-up call was made during the 2014-2016 Ebola outbreak in West Africa, it is an appalling truth that COVID-19 has already landed at the soils of many African countries.
For obvious reasons of limited resources and competing priorities, the continent’s epidemic response mechanisms and processes have been woefully inadequate. The poor global south is highly likely to be despoiled by the pandemic, though the likely impact and cost are not yet clear. And, judging from the tectonic challenges that Asia, Europe, and the USA are going through, the notion that the possible impact on Africa is even more nerve-racking can hardly be disregarded as a doomsayer’s hyperbole. This calls for the urgent need to harmonize and coordinate cross-continental efforts for pandemic prevention and control, definitely anchored in a concrete adherence to principles of regionalism and multilateralism.
No doubt the objective realities in Africa demand the international community to fully recognize the collateral crisis unfolding and respond collectively and without delay. Ethiopia has already submitted triple-pronged intervention packages for the consideration of the upcoming Extraordinary G-20 Leaders’ Summit: Africa Global COVID-19 Emergency Financing, Global Africa Health Emergency, and Debt Relief and Restructuring Packages. In his opinion piece appeared in Financial Times, Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed underlined that a coordinated global effort is the way to cushion the misery of the world, and particularly of the developing countries, and defeat the “invisible and a vicious adversary.” In a web-conference held on March 22, 2020, the African Ministers of Finance went over the significance and gravity of the effects of the COVID-19 outbreak and stressed the need for immediate additional resources of $US100 billion from multilateral financial institutions to mitigate its spread. Such timely overtures should continue to be catapulted by the political leadership and civil society organizations of the continent, and common voices need to be projected resolutely. No rational person expects that there will be a willful ignorance by the international community of such cogent calls because wilful blindness to such a common issue is tantamount to ignoring the obvious at the planet’s peril.
At least for now, the G20 pronouncement on COVID-19 has brought back the seemingly windswept confidence in the international community. Heart-warming to hear are the “whatever-it-takes” commitments made for ensuring adequate financing, availing resources to WHO, injecting over $5 trillion into the global economy, addressing risks of debt vulnerabilities in low-income countries, resolving disruptions to the global supply chains, working with front-line international organizations, support emerging and developing countries the shocks, consolidating Africa’s health defense, expanding manufacturing capacity for medical supplies, and mobilizing development and humanitarian financing, among others. What remains is to swiftly translate these commitments into concrete actions, as pledged, as time is not the best ally. And another cardinal reminder is – as costs of such a crisis if they happen in the least developed world, are quite sizeable – external aid should be free from unpopular strings that may be attached to it.
A better chance of winning the battle against an enveloping pandemic requires a common strategy that bridges the alienated efforts. The recent adoption of an “Africa Joint Continental Strategy for COVID-19 Outbreak” by the African Union (AU) to coordinate efforts of member states, AU agencies, WHO, and other partners ensure synergetic efforts to limit transmission and minimize harm, is commendable. And, the works of the Africa Centres for Disease Control and Prevention (Africa CDC) are more critical at present and need to be beefed up with resources and international coordination in its bid to enhance its support to African countries establish the necessary core capacities in surveillance and response. As an immediate response to the pandemics, Africa should take the battle through simple but effective measures for detecting, testing, isolating and mobilizing its people to mitigate transmission. Aggressive awareness creation machinery on how to prevent infection should be unleashed before the epidemic wanders incognito in many villages and towns. Alongside with the battle against the pandemic, African nations also need to introduce measures to protect existing productive capacities of their economies, the incomes, and livelihoods of their peoples as well.
At sub-regional levels, for instance, in the Horn of Africa, Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) can play a spearheading role in mobilizing additional resources needed for the pandemic emergency in a coordinated approach to assist civilian health workers and military forces of member states in discharging their duties. As IGAD has been instrumental in the search for peace in the region, including concomitant contribution in peacekeeping missions such as The African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM), it is also better positioned to solicit funding from international donors to support its Member States in the execution of country epidemic emergency plans, as well as in resource mobilization for reinforcing their health-related facilities. It can also play a catalytic role in the establishment of coherent mechanisms of sharing information and experiences on issues of trans-boundary public health using digital platforms.
A doubt that multilateralism is not waning in some way fades away with the recent approval of the World Bank and IFC’s Boards of Directors for an “increased US$14 billion package of fast-track financing to assist companies and countries in their efforts to prevent, detect and respond to the rapid spread of COVID-19” and the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) unveiling of the US$50 billion through its rapid-disbursing emergency financing facilities for low income and emerging market countries of which US$10 billion interest-free loans available for low-income countries. Some portion of such financial injections into the veins of healthcare providers and manufacturers of medical supplies help boost the capacity of fledgling processes in Africa. Moreover, the availability of sufficient liquidity helps make up for financial stability risks. It is in such an atmosphere of solidarity and synergy – and without running a grave risk of attaching any unsolicited strings with it – that the international community should operate to wither away the manifold effects of COVID-19. But still, Africa needs more grants and debt relief assistance.
In a swift response and itself just emerging from the quagmire of the pestilence, China has delivered a batch of testing reagents to African countries via Africa CDC and emergency supplies to countries affected. Moreover, Chinese companies such as Alibaba Group are readying themselves to make an indelible imprint on the African continent by availing medical supplies to potentially epidemic hotspots. With a break-neck speed, Alibaba’s donations have already been flown to Africa’s diplomatic capital Addis Ababa, where Ethiopia has been leading the management of logistics and disbursement efforts. As of March 27, 2020, Ethiopian Airlines had delivered to consignments to 41 countries with 13 others yet to be served. This presupposes that all stakeholders discharge their responsibilities in a manner that lends itself to promote mutual interest and respect in the battle against a common adversary.
And, the trust vested in Ethiopia to lead the emergency response has not emanated from a vacuum. To most observers, it is rather based on a confluence of many factors such as Ethiopia’s time-honored and momentous roles in the continental organization, the African Union, its unremitting devotion to regional and global cooperation in peace and security, its emergence as a continental hub for the aviation industry, it is being an epitome of China-Africa cooperation, as well as its avowed commitment towards multilateralism, among others. Moreover, the regional diplomacy pursued by successive Ethiopian governments and their tenacity in fashioning a coherent policy of integration has been lauded in the continent of Africa, particularly in the Horn of Africa, and of recent, they have propelled the translation of key steps outlined in the African Continental Free Trade Area (CFTAA). These are lucid indications of the leadership potential Ethiopia has to make an immense contribution to collective actions, deemed crucial to neutralize such adverse exogenous shocks.
Fair Economic Globalisation-A Salient Way for Boosting Africa’s Medical Supplies
Containing the spread of COVID-19 through emergency assistance may allow Africa or any other continent to make a tentative claim to such a victory. If one country can contain an epidemic once, there is no guarantee additional rounds and waves of infections may not occur. Africa should muster intra-Africa and global efforts to build medical-industrial capacity which can supply its health sector. In other words, such an atmosphere of the time should trigger Africa and advanced economies for new momentum of cooperation in the swift localization of medical supplies manufacturing facilities in African soil. For example, Ethiopia is well-positioned to harbor such industries as it has promoted the development of specialized pharmaceutical industry and biotechnology parks with an elaborated ten years National Strategy and Plan of Action for Pharmaceutical Manufacturing Development. It has also built the largest cargo airlines in Africa which can easily transport supplies to hotspots of epidemic crisis, with the vivacious spirit of pan-Africanism. It is very essential to replicate the kind of characteristic efficiency China has shown the world in building a monumental hospital from pre-fabricated components within a week or so at the epicenter of the COVID-19, in Wuhan city.
One cannot simply wave a magic wand and solve chronic supply shortages and bottlenecks, and break the logjam that impeded health system of developing countries. Most economists argue that supply-side constraints in most parts of Africa are fundamentally structural in nature and therefore cannot be reversed without bringing about the structural transformation of the economies. Structural constraints require sustainable fixes, such as investing in medical supplies and equipment manufacturing industries and improving the logistic infrastructure. To this end, Ethiopia is working to change the overall productive structure of the economy and creating a more favorable business climate to attract export-oriented foreign investments.
Over the past two decades, the African population has increased annually by 2.5% and is expected to rise to 2.4 billion by 2050. The continent also bears 25% of the global disease burden and is served by merely 2% of the world’s healthcare workforce. With evolving disease patterns, and growing population and economies, there is a mounting demand for high quality, accessible healthcare services to achieve universal health coverage. In this connection, there is no doubt that Africa is pregnant with a tempting prospect of a budding market for healthcare products, though many countries vary enormously in their size and growth trajectories. For multinational corporations, relocating manufacturing bases to Africa makes great sense on the availability of abundant and inexpensive labor force, attractive fiscal incentives, and more importantly, the burgeoning health care market. So, the private sector can enhance investment in the sector, and forge a partnership with donors and governments to provide better healthcare facilities and increased access to medicine at an affordable price.
The challenge this outbreak poses can be converted into an opportunity for multinational companies to relocate their industrial chains, averting market risks and titivating their resilience in the economic downturn, and with host governments providing them with fiscal incentive packages, including granting of long term procurement contracts and price preferences over imported products. However, it would be disingenuous or downright naive to disregard associated challenges of the disruption in the world-wide chains of production and consumption posing erratic effects on such investments.
Deploying Multinational Militaries for Calming the Nerves
In the wake of COVID-19, many countries have now been put on a wartime footing. There is no doubt that militaries with their ethos of service traditionally play major roles in battling pandemics, as normal civilian capacity is stretched and require a rapid response at scale. Similarly, peacekeepers deployed in Africa can play a vital role in delivering health care in emergency settings as well as facilitating and assisting humanitarian access, and serve as life-force in the battle against the spread of COVID-19 across the continent. Some countries have the experience of tasking their militaries to deal with a medical crisis beyond their sovereign territories, teaming up to contain the propagation of the virus around the globe.
During the 2014 Ebola outbreak in Africa, the U.S. Department of Defense sent scores of troops in support dubbed as Operation United Assistance and helped global and local health organizations with aid delivery, logistics, transportation and also built hospitals each with hundred beds. Likewise, most of the armies across the globe are endowed with the expertise to assist with medical care; build mobile army surgical hospitals; provide shelter; or transport food, medical equipment, and people to meet the needs of the public. Such kinds of rapid responses need to be further nurtured and now replicated in bigger doses.
African armies in a peer-to-peer synergy or in collaboration with armies of other countries can battle the virulent enemy and save countless lives. Most importantly, given militaries’ prominence in the logistic capability, their contribution can prevail elatedly to contain the spread of the virus. Their skilled and well-equipped personnel could be very useful for transporting civilian officials and materials. When a dearth of medical tools, food and water strike in those affected areas, the military can deliver them in an efficient manner. Better coordination among different stakeholders can be carried out using military communication equipment including their digital capacity for interactive teleconferencing. What is more, they can also help in carrying out the medical evacuation, availing generators to provide electricity, and managing large crowds. But the armies themselves should be insulated from contagious effects.
Given the scale and existential urgency of combating the pandemic, there is no doubt that engaging the peacekeeping missions in Africa would entail the support the international donors can afford. This requires a lot of efforts and engagements on the part of the African Union and regional economic blocs.
A Need for Africa to Learn from Asian Experience
Africa can learn a lot from Asian countries-China, South Korea and Singapore- that had been hit early by the COVID-19 but which have been doing an exemplary job of beating it back and containing further spreads. Those successes have been brought by a layering of what is known as a non-pharmaceutical checklist of measures, such as taking the virus seriously and acting quickly, making tests extensive and affordable, tracing and isolating, keeping the public well informed, and making people understand the need to change their attitudes to comply with government orders. Moreover, a mutual complementarity of modern and traditional Chinese medicines was applied to effectively treat the disease. In any account, the scale of response by China is unparalleled.
China has reset a pivot from being an epicenter of COVID-19 to becoming a staunch redeemer of other countries as well, with the caseload in its territory encouragingly dwindling. It has now yielded an infectious optimism that the pandemic’s spread can be slowed, its curve be flattened and its course be altered. For this to happen, the resolute leadership in China has had the acumen to spearhead the battle which has been fought through unprecedented coordination, evidence-based action and with effective communication. For other countries now facing COVID-19 to get out of the woods, WHO is working to share lessons learned from China.
It can be submitted that the readiness of China to share its experience is congruently aligned with its maxim of “building a global community of shared future”, anchored in principles of multilateralism, either through United Nations platform or other like the Belt and Road Initiative and the Forum on China-Africa Cooperation (FOCAC). To narrow down the issue in the African prism, it is to be recalled that Eight Major Initiatives, including healthcare, were announced during the FOCAC Beijing Summit on September 20, 2018. In the wake of the COVID-19, it is critical to enhancing the implementation of the planned programs under the healthcare initiative which China committed. As a matter of supreme urgency, equipping African health facilities with medical supplies, devices, building pre-fabricated hospitals, training of health professionals, and establishing mobile medical services can prove to be instrumental in quelling the impending crisis.
It is hoped that Africa CDC is elevating its partnership with Chinese counterparts through charting a workable plan to help African countries to squeeze the maximum out of such opportunities. This will definitely help Africa emulate and adapt China’s best practices in nipping the epidemic as it was growing before it reaches high peaks. The government of China is also best positioned to redouble its efforts to support private or public enterprises to relocate medical supplies manufacturing facilities in Africa. This can be beefed up through allocating financial resources and sharing with them perceived or actual risks.
ATo sum up, such a global pandemic requires a coordinated approach, and it is not a battle to fight single-handedly. The world must stand together not to surrender and not to allow fissures on the multilateral system. One country might succeed in defeating the nemesis in its own territory for the interim, but sooner or later, it may not escape the suffering of reverse contamination effects. Nowadays, many countries and peoples have been freed from their geographical shackles, are more interlinked, and have become bulwarks against the breakdown of multilateralism. And for sure, in this era of global interconnectedness and digital technology, nations cannot afford to close their physical borders forever. This is the time to exhibit a gesture of genuine camaraderie on the global arena and overcome unexpected fragilities in moments of crisis. Hedging against this global pandemic not to demean the mechanisms of multilateral and regional cooperation should be the call of the time.
Disclaimer: The author contributed this article on his personal capacity. The opinions expressed in this article are the author’s own and do not reflect the view of the organization that he works with.
Negus Kebede is a Minister Counsellor at the Ethiopian Embassy in Beijing, China. His research interest encompasses issues related to economic policy and planning, economic diplomacy, foreign economic policies and strategies, international business, regional economic integration, and international economic relations. He holds a Master of Arts Degree in Economic Policy and Planning from Makerere University.
