A Week in the Horn

A Week in the Horn 14.04.2023

In this Edition

News in Brief

On the Government of Ethiopia’s Decision to Restructuring Regional Special Forces

High-level Ethiopian Delegation Pays a Visit to Djibouti

High level Ethiopian Delegation Pays a Visit to Somalia

Africa and the African Union

AU convened a briefing session on progress in the implementation of the AU-EU-UN Tripartite Project on the enhancement of the African Union Compliance and Accountability Framework (AUCF) to the Military Attaché Association (MAA) in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, on Wednesday (April 12). The briefing provided an overview of key achievements since the start of the Project in February 2022, including on policy development and review, enhancement of existing compliance mechanisms and processes, and the facilitation of a number of training and capacity-building initiatives.

Ethiopia

The Government of Ethiopia has announced recently that the Special Forces of the regional states in the country are going to be restructured. There are many legal and psychological reasons to do that. This announcement, however, seems to have caused contention in some corners of the country. Some explanation is important here. (See article)

Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister of Ethiopia, Demeke Mekonnen, welcomed to his office on Thursday (April 13) Subrahmanyam Jaishankar, Minister for External Affairs of the Republic of India, to discuss issues of mutual concern. Demeke appreciated India’s unreserved support for Ethiopia’s position in the UN Security Council related to the conflict in the northern part of Ethiopia and the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam file. He also explained the implementation process of the Pretoria Peace Agreement, the resumption of humanitarian support and basic services in conflict-affected areas, and the ongoing activities of the All-Inclusive National Dialogue Commission in the country. During their discussion, Demeke highlighted the need for Ethiopia’s partners, such as India, to take positive measures on the debt restructuring requests of developing countries. S. Jaishankar said the India-Africa Forum Summit, which was obstructed because of the COVID-19 pandemic, will be held in 2023 with thematic areas that fit with the interests of developing countries, including the health and digital sectors. The two sides also talked about India’s bid to run for a non-permanent seat in the UNSC in 2028–2029.

The Foreign Minister of Slovenia,Tanja Fajon, ended her three-day visit to Ethiopia on Wednesday (April 12), following her meeting with Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed and African Union Commission Chair Moussa Faki. “Europe’s biggest mistake is talking about Africa without really understanding its problems,” Fajon noted, adding that “Slovenia could be an exception”. During her stay, the minister met with her Ethiopian counterpart, Demeke Mekonnen, and the Minister of Trade and Regional Integration, Gebremeskel Chala. This is the first visit at foreign minister level and an important step in strengthening bilateral relations between Slovenia and Ethiopia, as well as in light of the forthcoming opening of the Slovenian Embassy in Addis Ababa.

Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Foreign Affairs, Demeke Mekonnen, held discussions with the delegation of the Global Black Heritage History and Education Centre (GBHHC) at his office. According to the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, the Global Black Heritage History and Education Centre (GBHHC) is to set up its headquarters in Addis Ababa. The delgation stated that Ethiopia is an ideal place to be the seat of the GBHHC because it is a gateway to Africa. Ethiopia has a unique attachment to the black diaspora, they noted, as it is a center of black resistance. The GBHHC delegation arrived in Addis Ababa early Wednesday (April 12). During its stay, the delegation will also have engagements and discussions with various parties.

A high-level delegation from the Ministry of Health led by Minister Liya Tadesse has arrived in Tigray, Mekelle, on Wednesday (April 12) to observe the status of severely damaged health infrastructure, provide needed health materials, and discuss rehabilitation issues with regional authorities. The minister is making her first trip since the peace agreement was signed between the federal government and the Tigrayan People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) in Pretoria, South Africa, in November last year.

The Ministry of Women and Social Affairs launched a national anti-drug campaign on Wednesday (April 12), with the goal of creating a productive and healthy generation. Collaborative and organized activities with all stakeholders across the country in a sustainable manner were mentioned as a critical tool to realize the anti-drug movement. Regional States’ senior officials, representatives from various universities and civic society organizations, and heads of youth and women affairs, among others, attended. The national movement will be carried out for a year.

State Minister of the Ethiopian Foreign Ministry Mesganu Arga met with Moussa Faki Mahamat, Chairperson of the African Union Commission, on Tuesday (April 11). They discussed the implementation of the common continental agenda as well as bilateral and continental issues. Misganu assured Ethiopia’s unwavering support for the AU’s mission.

Human Rights Commissioner Amtsberg, prior to her trip to Ethiopia and South Sudan, gave a statement on Tuesday (April 11). In her statement, she said that her main reason to travel to Ethiopia, following the joint visit by Foreign Minister Baerbock and her French counterpart Catherine Colonna in mid-January, is to learn more about the progress of the peace process and the National Dialogue to address human rights violations, as well as the challenging situation facing women and girls in the country. She also stated that the German Government is interested in a serious expansion of its relations with Ethiopia and remains a reliable partner, including in the sphere of humanitarian assistance. In light of the devastating drought in the Horn of Africa, Germany’s humanitarian assistance efforts remain crucial.

Islamabad Chamber of Commerce and Industry (ICCI) has called for signing Pak-Ethiopia PTA to boost bilateral trade. “Ethiopia has strong economic ties with Türkiye and the UAE, and Ethiopia wants similar relations with Pakistan. China and India have a good presence in Ethiopia, and Pakistan should increase its presence in the Ethiopian market. Many Pakistani products, including textiles, pharmaceuticals, and cement, have great potential in Ethiopia, and the business community of Pakistan should capitalize on this potential for exports,” stated Jemal Beker Abdula, Ambassador of Ethiopia, while addressing the business community during his visit to the Islamabad Chamber of Commerce and Industry (ICCI) on Saturday (April 8).

International Monetary Fund (IMF) mission led by Alvaro Piris concluded a 10-day visit to Ethiopia last Friday (April 7). At the end of the visit, Piris issued the following statement: “The IMF team welcomes the authorities’ Homegrown Economic Reform Agenda (HGER II), an ambitious reform program that aims to address key macroeconomic vulnerabilities and unleash Ethiopia’s considerable economic potential. We made progress in discussing the scope for IMF support for this reform program. Discussions will continue in Washington, DC, next week, in the context of the IMF-World Bank Spring Meetings, and in coming weeks. We thank the authorities for their warm hospitality and the productive discussions.”

Eritrea

A senior Eritrean delegation composed of Osman Saleh, Minister of Foreign Affairs, and Presidential Adviser, Yemane Gebrab, was received by President William Ruto on Tuesday (April 11) at the State House in Nairobi. Ruto briefed the Eritrean delegation on the recent developments in the Horn of Africa and East Africa, as well as on his consultations with regional leaders regarding the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) and broader regional cooperation.

Djibouti

An Ethiopian delegation led by Adam Farah, Deputy President of the Prosperity Party of Ethiopia, paid a visit to the Republic of Djibouti from April 5–6, 2023. The main purpose of the visit was to deliver a message from Dr. Abiy Ahmed, the Prime Minister of the Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia, to Ismail Omar Guelleh, President of the Republic of Djibouti. (See article)

China inaugurated the Djibouti Confucius Institute in the capital city of Djibouti last week (April 6). Located at the industrial and commercial high school of Djibouti, the first Djibouti Confucius Institute has been jointly established by the Chinese Sichuan Normal University and the Djibouti National Education and Vocational Training Department.

Kenya

Starting on Wednesday (April 12), Kenya is hosting the fourth National Nutrition Symposium in an effort to eradicate all forms of malnutrition in the country. The two-day event has been organised under the theme “Eradicating malnutrition in all its forms: Stepping up political, multi-sectoral, and interdisciplinary action towards nutrition resilience’.” According to the Ministry of Health, the symposium is a critical step towards a healthier and more nourished future. It has been organized jointly by the ministry, and partners include UNICEF, WFP, USAID, PATH, Nutrition International, Action Against Hunger, Concern Worldwide, and the Kenya National Bureau of Statistics.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has revised Kenya’s economic growth projection for 2023 upward from 5.1 percent as forecasted in October last year to 5.3 percent, according to the World Economic Outlook released on Wednesday (April 12). The upward revision of this year’s economic growth implies that Kenya is poised to generate Sh25.5 billion more in economic output in 2023 than had been earlier predicted by the IMF. Kenya is the only economy in East Africa whose projections for this year have been revised upward in the IMF’s latest review.

Somalia

An Ethiopian delegation led by the Vice President of the Prosperity Party, Adam Farah, paid a working visit to Somalia on Tuesday (April 4, 2023). Upon arrival in Mogadishu, the Minister of Foreign Affairs and International Cooperation of Somalia, Abshir Omar Jama, and Mukhtar Muhammad Ware, Ambassador Plenipotentiary of the Federal Republic of Ethiopia to Somalia, welcomed the delegation. The main purpose of the visit was to deliver a message from Prime Minister Dr. Abiy Ahmed to Dr. Hassen Sheikh Mahmud, President of the Federal Republic of Somalia. (See article)

As part of his “solidarity visit” to Somalia, UN Secretary-General António Guterres appealed on Tuesday (April 11), for “massive international support” for Somalia as it faces its worst drought in decades. He said the nation was dealing with humanitarian difficulties while at the same time also combating a serious terrorism threat. “The international community has the responsibility and the interest to support Somalia with the resources needed to defeat Al-Shabaab, build resilience, stabilise the areas liberated, and provide much-needed humanitarian assistance,” he said.

Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud announced Friday (April 7) that his government has banned people from carrying weapons on the streets of Mogadishu, the country’s capital. The president announced the ban during a Friday prayers sermon held inside his presidential compound in Mogadishu. He said flouting the ban would not be tolerated. Mohamud has also banned traders from importing all kinds of military gear, from uniforms to boots to equipment.

South Sudan

On Wednesday (April 12), it was announced that Ayed S. Al-Qahtani, Director of the Research Division for the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), will participate as a speaker at the sixth edition of South Sudan Oil & Power (SSOP) 2023, taking place from June 14–16 in Juba. OPEC’s participation at SSOP 2023 will assist in advancing the country’s agenda, with Al-Qahtani’s participation poised to facilitate engagement with international energy leaders while improving regional cooperation, creating cross-border fuel security and stability, and bolstering investment in the mid- and downstream sectors.

Sheikh Abdullah bin Zayed Al Nahyan, Minister of Foreign Affairs and International Cooperation of UAE, and Deng Dau, the Acting Minister of Foreign Affairs and International Cooperation in the Republic of South Sudan, reviewed bilateral relations between the two countries and the prospects of advancing cooperation at various levels on Tuesday (April 11).

The governments of South Sudan and Sudan, early this week, signed a commitment agreement on the final resolution of the Abyei dispute. The signing ceremony was attended by the Deputy Chairperson of the Sovereign Council, Mohamad Hamdan Daglo, who signed on behalf of the Government of Sudan, and Tut Gatluak, who signed on behalf of the Government of South Sudan. The two committees pledged commitment to resolving outstanding issues of Abyei in a peaceful and amicable manner, as well as delivering social services and promoting community dialogue to foster unity among the Ngok Dinka and Misseriya.

The South Sudan National Bureau of Statistics (SSNBS) released a new Population Estimation Survey (PES) last week on April 6, which assessed the country’s population at 12.4 million. According to Isaiah Chol, the chairperson of SSNBS, the survey was conducted starting in May 2021 and is based on satellite imagery and inventory gathered in collaboration with the United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA). Chol said the population survey was conducted across the ten states and three administrative regions. The SSNBS chairperson said the purpose of the PES is to generate reliable population estimates on the population density and basic demographic characteristics for all levels of administration in the country.

Sudan

The Sudanese army warned early on Thursday (April 13) of what it described as a “mobilisation of forces and redeployment” by the powerful Rapid Support Forces (RSF) in the capital Khartoum and other cities. The Sudanese army said on Thursday that a paramilitary force headed by General Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo had mobilised troops in the capital Khartoum and other cities—a move that raises the prospect of confrontation with the armed forces. The army said in a statement that the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) movements represented a “clear violation of law”.

Volker Turk, the UN human rights chief, expressed concern about the current tense situation in Sudan on Saturday (April 8). He urged all sides to work together to overcome obstacles to security sector reform and avoid any further delays in the signing of the political agreement. The human rights chief also called on the authorities and all sides to take measures to de-escalate tensions and refrain from violence.

An accidental discovery in the ancient town of Old Dongola, Sudan, has revealed a set of medieval Christian paintings unlike any seen before. Old Dongola, in the north of Sudan, may not look like much to the untrained eye. Nestled in the eastern Sahara Desert, it’s been completely deserted since the 19th century, when its entire population moved 160 kilometres (100 miles) away and across the Nile, leaving only the ancient ruins that now dot the landscape.

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On the Government of Ethiopia’s Decision to Restructuring Regional Special Forces

The Government of Ethiopia has announced recently that the Special Forces of the regional states in the country are going to be restructured. There are many legal and psychological reasons to do that. This announcement, however, seems to have caused contention in some corners of the country. Some explanation is important here.

Why is the government grateful to the Special Forces?

The Government of Ethiopia has repeatedly expressed its gratitude for the indispensable roles of Special Forces, particularly the Amhara and Afar Regional States Special Forces, during the law enforcement operation in the Tigray region. They were able to provide swift support to the Ethiopian Defence Force members when the latter were unwarrantedly attacked by the TPLF forces as of November 3, 2020. This support has continued until the danger to the country’s sovereignty and territorial integrity is successfully thwarted.

Is it rational to form Special Forces despite the fact that it is unconstitutional?

When countries face urgent security and safety threats and their central security and safety institutions are unable to counter the threats they face on average, they are forced to organise small and medium security forces, which are usually not difficult to establish, such as militias and Special Forces. It is a perfectly rational decision to form temporary arrangements to ensure survival not only in the military but also in other fields.

When is the time to cease having Special Forces and other arrangements in a country?

Establishing militia forces, Special Forces, and other arrangements are temporary solutions to temporary problems. But when the imminent danger is no longer on the scene, then it will not be viable to maintain such arrangements intact. As Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed said recently, temporary solutions should not be mistaken for permanent ones.

It should not be forgotten that Ethiopia has faced challenges to its sovereignty and unity in relation to the actions of regional Special Forces. The challenges in the Tigray and Somali regional states were recent memories. We have also observed that maintaining these temporary arrangements, particularly for Special Forces, fosters unnecessary competition between the various regions of the country. Other challenges, such as illegal control of checkpoints, smuggling, and theft, are also being observed.

What is the permanent solution then?

As the use of force is the sole right and responsibility of the Government, it should not be contentious to have a single national military arrangement in the country. A country should be represented by a single, unified army. Therefore, the Government decided that members of Regional Special Forces would be given the opportunity to join the Ethiopian National Defence Force, the Federal Police, or the Regional State Police. In doing so, they will not be disarmed but will be better equipped and get capacity-building training and promotion in the national army. There is no doubt that it is appropriate and timely to strengthen the Ethiopian National Defence Forces centrally and make them competent enough to protect the interests of people in all of the parts of the country. For those members of the Special Forces from regional states that choose to live a civilian life, the Government has provided all the necessary support to help them live a decent life.

What is the contention then?

The decision of the Government of Ethiopia is neither to disarm the Special Forces nor to favour strengthening some groups while weakening others. The decision was not an abrupt one, either. The agenda of getting Special Forces members into the Ethiopian National Defence Forces or the police is something that has been discussed and recommended for a long time. The agenda was raised at various times by the leadership and in public forums. The implementation of the Government’s plan, however, has been dragged because of impending challenges for the last two years.

The Government believes that now is the time to boost the capacity of the Ethiopian National Defence forces which has been steadily growing following the reforms that have been taken under the new political administration. The Government also believes that such a decision would promote the interests of the members of the Special Forces in the Ethiopian formal army while lessening challenges that compromised the safety of the people because of the actions of some of the members of the Special Forces.

What shall be done?

Having a unified and single national army, in this case the Ethiopian National Defence Forces is not something that should be compromised. But creating understanding among the public and members of the Special Forces about the decision is important. With proper communication and understanding, the Government of Ethiopia believes that the people of Ethiopia will eventually understand that national interests and the safety of the people will be better protected by the existence of a unified army, under the command of the Government, which should have a monopoly on violence to permanently address our collective interest.

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High-level Ethiopian Delegation Pays a Visit to Djibouti

An Ethiopian delegation led by Adam Farah, Deputy President of the Prosperity Party of Ethiopia, paid a visit to the Republic of Djibouti from April 5–6, 2023. The main purpose of the visit was to deliver a message from Dr. Abiy Ahmed, the Prime Minister of the Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia, to Ismail Omar Guelleh, President of the Republic of Djibouti.

During the visit, the delegation met with Ismail Omar Guelleh, President of the Republic of Djibouti, and Mahmoud Ali Youssouf, Minister of Foreign Affairs and International Cooperation of the Republic of Djibouti, and discussed the current issues of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD), especially the Resolution of the Council of Ministers of the League of Arab States on March 9, 2023, regarding the GERD and bilateral issues. In addition, the delegation met and discussed with Workneh Gebeyehu, IGAD’s Executive Secretary.

The delegation’s message emphasized that the Arab League’s resolution regarding the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam was regrettable and that the League’s involvement in an issue that did not concern it was unwarranted because it was an African matter. It asked Djibouti to condemn the resolution, as a member of this organisation, and oppose the intrusion of the League. The delegation underlined that Ethiopia has the right to develop its natural resources without the permission of other states, and the issue of historical rights that is being raised on the side of Egypt is unacceptable and also against international norms.

The Djiboutian side stated that the Arab League’s decision was not accepted by Djibouti and would have no effect on Ethiopia. “The dam is not only an Ethiopian project but also a regional one. Djibouti has supported the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam in all stages and will continue to do so in the future.”

The delegation also met and discoursed with the IGAD Secretariat; the discussion mainly focused on the issue of peace and security in the region and exchanged ideas on how to enhance the role of IGAD in the region. It was also emphasized that the IGAD should be strengthened to play its role in matters related to peace and security in the region. It should not be silent on pertinent issues in the region, especially in the situation where the Arab League is involved in the issue of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) and has reached the point of issuing a resolution.

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High level Ethiopian Delegation Pays a Visit to Somalia

An Ethiopian delegation led by the Vice President of the Prosperity Party, Adam Farah, paid a working visit to Somalia on April 4, 2023. Upon arrival in Mogadishu, the Minister of Foreign Affairs and International Cooperation of Somalia, Abshir Omar Jama, and Mukhtar Muhammad Ware, Ambassador Plenipotentiary of the Federal Republic of Ethiopia to Somalia, welcomed the delegation. The main purpose of the visit was to deliver a message from Prime Minister Dr. Abiy Ahmed to Dr. Hassen Sheikh Mahmud, President of the Federal Republic of Somalia.

Aside from delivering the message, the delegation held a discussion on the current issues of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) and various bilateral issues, especially the resolution of the Council of Ministers of the League of Arab States on March 9, 2023, regarding the GERD. The delegation reiterated Ethiopia’s position that it was unacceptable for Egypt to submit the GERD issue before the Arab League, bypassing the African Union.

During the discussion, President Hassan said that Ethiopia has stood with the people and government of Somalia for the past decade and supported peace in Somalia. He expressed his sincere gratitude on behalf of the people and government of Somalia. He said that Somalia’s position regarding the Renaissance Dam is clear and unchanging, and that the issue encourages the countries concerned to discuss and resolve the differences between them. He said that Somalia is dependent on water from Ethiopia, and there is a need to discuss how these common resources can be jointly managed. It is encouraging that Ethiopia has started producing irrigated wheat, he said. The President stated that no action that harms Ethiopia will come from Somalia, and nothing that poses a threat to Ethiopia will come from Somalia.

In addition, the delegation met and discussed bilateral and regional issues with Hamza Abdi Bare, the Prime Minister of Somalia; Adam Mohamed Noor, the Speaker of the Parliament of Somalia; and Abshir Omar Jama, the Minister of Foreign Affairs and International Cooperation.

The delegation’s message emphasized that the Arab League’s resolution regarding the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam was regrettable and that the League’s involvement in an issue that did not concern it was unwarranted because it was an African matter. The delegation asked Somalian officials to condemn the League’s resolution and for Somalia, as a member of this organisation, to oppose the intrusion of the League. Furthermore, the delegation underlined that Ethiopia has the right to develop its natural resources without the permission of other states, and the issue of historical rights that is being raised on the side of Egypt is unacceptable and also against international norms.

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Spokesperson's Directorate General

Spokesperson's Directorate General of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia.

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